The Big Change in Counting Job: Dissecting Nigeria's Labor Force Report

Nigeria's recent Labor Force Survey has stirred up a whirlwind of debate, raising eyebrows and questions about the true state of employment in the country especially with respect to what many Nigerians are calling "practical realities". The new report claims that only 4.1% of Nigerians are currently unemployed. Nigeria is a country with an estimated population of 216 million people with over 68% of this number being those of working age. Many are left scratching their heads, wondering how this figure aligns with the stark realities faced by millions who are still struggling to make ends meet.

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How did Nigeria's unemployment rate go from 33% in 2023 to 4.1% in the most recent labour report? Well, they didn't wave a magic wand or create millions of jobs overnight, certainly not. Instead, they simply changed the rules of the game. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) decided to play statistical gymnastics by twisting definitions until unemployment nearly vanished into thin air. Our people at the statistics headquarters decided to suddenly adopt the International Labour Organisation's (ILO) definition of what "employment" was, a definition so broad that it could catch a fly with a fishing net.

The ILO's definition for what "employment" is, as now adopted by Nigeria's new Labour Force Survey (NLFS), includes:

• Individuals who are working for pay or profit and who worked for at least one hour in the last seven days.
• Individuals who typically work for pay or profit but were temporarily absent from work during the past seven days due to factors such as working time arrangements, sick leave, vacation, or parental leave.

Intact, this definition uses the "one-hour criterion," which means that anyone who engaged in any form of paid work or profit-making activity for at least one hour in the previous one week is considered employed. In essence, if you worked for just one hour in the past week for any kind of pay or profit, congratulations! You're "employed" - based on this new innovative definition of "employment".

Did you braided your neighbour's hair for a few naira even for just one hour last week? You are employed!, did you sell a stick of gum for 20 naira through a one hour negotiation with your sibling within the last week? consider yourself as employed, or maybe you helped your Uncle within the past week in looking after his shop for even an hour? You guessed right! - You are employed!

This new approach is like saying everyone who's ever held a spoon is a chef. It completely ignores the quality of employment, the stability of income, or whether the work actually puts food on the table. By this definition, a street hawker selling pencils for an hour a week is in the same statistical boat as a full-time professional. It's a classic case of "How to Lie with Statistics" – change the measurement, and voila! Your problems disappear on paper, even as they worsen in reality.

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The NBS also switched to what they called "continuous data collection", which sounds fancy but really just means they're smoothing over the bumps and dips in employment throughout the year. It's like taking a blurry photo of the job market and calling it "high definition - HD." It's really crazy, but you will never understand how outlandish and self defeating this magician move is until you try to prove things with a bit of data validation checks.

For context, the UK has an unemployment rate of 4.1% , same as what NBS reported for Nigeria.

This means that 96% of those living in the UK are considered to be working.

By the NBS report, this is also same for Nigeria.

Assuming we decide that this is true, it means that this should somehow reflect in both nations GDP which is a measure of how productive a nation is. This is a fact we all can agree on. Good!

UK has a GDP of 3.3 Trillion dollars - showing what it should be for a nation where 96% of her population is productively engaged. Nigeria's GDP is a paltry 205 billlion dollars despite the fact that 96% of Nigerians are employed!! Where is the lie???

In essence, these guys redefined "unemployment" out of existence, all while 140 million Nigerians live in poverty, 8 million small businesses have shut their doors, and GDP growth limps along at 2.54%. It's a statistical sleight of hand that would make even the most skilled magician jealous. But for millions of Nigerians struggling to make ends meet, this new "employment" status is cold comfort indeed, after all, "Na Statistics we go chop?".

Those who asked have gone right ahead to cook for all of us!!

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